Understanding health inequalities in Wales using the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition method.

Background: Throughout Wales and the world, health inequality remains a problem that is interconnected with a wider and complex social, economic and environmental dynamic. Subsequently, action to tackle inequality in health needs to take place at a structural level, acknowledging the constraints affecting an individual's (or community's) capability and opportunity to enable change. While the 'social determinants of health' is an established concept, fully understanding the composition of the health gap is dependent on capturing the relative contributions of a myriad of social, economic and environmental factors within a quantitative analysis. Method: The decomposition analysis sought to explain the differences in the prevalence of these outcomes in groups stratified by their ability to save at least £10 a month, whether they were in material deprivation, and the presence of a limiting long-standing illness, disability of infirmity. Responses to over 4,200 questions within the National Survey for Wales (n = 46,189; 2016-17 to 2019-20) were considered for analysis. Variables were included based on (1) their alignment to a World Health Organization (WHO) health equity framework ("Health Equity Status Report initiative") and (2) their ability to allow for stratification of the survey sample into distinct groups where considerable gaps in health outcomes existed. A pooled Blinder-Oaxaca model was used to analyse inequalities in self-reported health (fair/poor health, low mental well-being and low life satisfaction) and were stratified by the variables relating to financial security, material deprivation and disability status. Results: The prevalence of fair/poor health was 75% higher in those who were financially insecure and 95% higher in those who are materially deprived. Decomposition of the outcome revealed that just under half of the health gap was "explained" i.e., 45.5% when stratifying by the respondent's ability to save and 46% when stratifying by material deprivation status. Further analysis of the explained component showed that "Social/Human Capital" and "Income Security/Social Protection" determinants accounted the most for disparities observed; it also showed that "Health Services" determinants accounted the least. These findings were consistent across the majority of scenarios modeled. Conclusion: The analysis not only quantified the significant health gaps that existed in the years leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic but it has also shown what determinants of health were most influential. Understanding the factors most closely associated with disparities in health is key in identifying policy levers to reduce health inequalities and improve the health and well-being across populations.

COVID-19 and deprivation amplification: An ecological study of geographical inequalities in mortality in England.

'Deprivation amplification' is used to understand the relationship between deprivation, scale and COVID-19 mortality rates. We found that more deprived Middle Super Output Areas (MSOAs) in the more deprived northern regions suffered greater COVID-19 mortality rates. Across England, the most deprived 20% of MSOAs had higher mortality than the least deprived (44.1% more COVID-19 deaths/10,000). However, the most deprived MSOAs in the north fared worse than equally deprived areas in the rest of England (14.5% more deaths/10,000, beta = 0.136, p < 0.01). There was also strong evidence of spatial clustering and spill-overs. We discuss these findings in relation to 'deprivation amplification', the 'syndemic pandemic', and the health and place literature.

The impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on physical activity amongst older adults: evidence from longitudinal data in the UK.

BACKGROUND: A sedentary lifestyle increases the risk of adverse health outcomes and frailty,particularly for older adults. To reduce transmission during the COVID-19 pandemic, people were instructed to stay at home, group sports were suspended, and gyms were closed, thereby limiting opportunities for physical activity. Whilst evidence suggests that physical activity levels reduced during the pandemic, it is unclear whether the proportion of older adults realising the recommended minimum level of physical activity changed throughout the various stages of lockdown. METHODS: We used a large sample of 3,660 older adults (aged ≥ 65) who took part in the UK Household Longitudinal Study's annual and COVID-19 studies. We examined changes in the proportion of older adults who were realising the UK Chief Medical Officers' physical activity recommendations for health maintenance at several time points before and after COVID-19 lockdowns were imposed. We stratified these trends by the presence of health conditions, age, neighbourhood deprivation, and pre-pandemic activity levels. RESULTS: There was a marked decline in older adults' physical activity levels during the third national lockdown in January 2021. The proportion realising the Chief Medical Officers' physical activity recommendations decreased from 43% in September 2020 to 33% in January 2021. This decrease in physical activity occurred regardless of health condition, age, neighbourhood deprivation, or pre-pandemic activity levels. Those doing the least activity pre-lockdown increased their activity during lockdowns and those doing the most decreased their activity levels. CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in older adults' physical activity levels during COVID-19 lockdowns have put them at risk of becoming deconditioned and developing adverse health outcomes. Resources should be allocated to promote the uptake of physical activity in older adults to reverse the effects of deconditioning.

Evaluation of the mental health impacts of Universal Credit: protocol for a mixed methods study.

INTRODUCTION: The UK social security system is being transformed by the implementation of Universal Credit (UC), which combines six existing benefits and tax credits into a single payment for low-income households. Despite extensive reports of hardship associated with the introduction of UC, no previous studies have comprehensively evaluated its impact on mental health. Because payments are targeted at low-income households, impacts on mental health will have important consequences for health inequalities. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will conduct a mixed methods study. Work package (WP) 1 will compare health outcomes for new recipients of UC with outcomes for legacy benefit recipients in two large population surveys, using the phased rollout of UC as a natural experiment. We will also analyse the relationship between the proportion of UC claimants in small areas and a composite measure of mental health. WP2 will use data collected by Citizen's Advice to explore the sociodemographic and health characteristics of people who seek advice when claiming UC and identify features of the claim process that prompt advice-seeking. WP3 will conduct longitudinal in-depth interviews with up to 80 UC claimants in England and Scotland to explore reasons for claiming and experiences of the claim process. Up to 30 staff supporting claimants will also be interviewed. WP4 will use a dynamic microsimulation model to simulate the long-term health impacts of different implementation scenarios. WP5 will undertake cost-consequence analysis of the potential costs and outcomes of introducing UC and cost-benefit analyses of mitigating actions. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: We obtained ethical approval for the primary data gathering from the University of Glasgow, College of Social Sciences Research Ethics Committee, application number 400200244. We will use our networks to actively disseminate findings to UC claimants, the public, practitioners and policy-makers, using a range of methods and formats. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: The study is registered with the Research Registry: researchregistry6697.

Consultation patterns and frequent attenders in UK primary care from 2000 to 2019: a retrospective cohort analysis of consultation events across 845 general practices.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the distribution of consultations at the practice level and examine whether increases are uniform or driven by people who consult more frequently. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: UK general practice data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD database. PARTICIPANTS: 1 699 709 314 consultation events from 12 330 545 patients, in 845 general practices (1 April 2000 to 31 March 2019). METHODS: Consultation information was aggregated by financial year into: all consultations/all staff; all consultations/general practitioners (GPs); face-to-face consultations/all staff; face-to-face consultations/GPs. Patients with a number of consultations above the 90th centile, within each year, were classified as frequent attenders. Negative binomial regressions examined the association between available practice characteristics and consultation distribution. RESULTS: Among frequent attenders, all consultations by GPs increased from a median (25th and 75th centile) of 13 (10 and 16) to 21 (18 and 25) and all consultations by all staff increased from 27 (23-30) to 60 (51-69) over the study period. Approximately four out of ten consultations of any type concerned frequent attenders and the proportion of consultations attributed to them increased over time, particularly for face-to-face consultations with GPs, from a median of 38.0% (35.9%-40.3%) in 2000-2001 to 43.0% (40.6%-46.4%) in 2018-2019. Regression analyses indicated decreasing trends over time for face-to-face consultations and increasing trends for all consultation types, for both GPs and all staff. Frequent attenders consulted approximately five times more than the rest of the practice population, on average, with adjusted incidence rate ratios ranging between 4.992 (95% CI 4.917 to 5.068) for face-to-face consultations with all staff and 5.603 (95% CI 5.560 to 5.647) for all consultations with GPs. CONCLUSIONS: Frequent attenders progressively contributed to increased workload in general practices across the UK from 2000 to 2019. Important knowledge gaps remain in terms of the demographic, social and health characteristics of frequent attenders and how UK general practices can be prepared to meet the needs of these patients.

Corona and coffee on your commute: a spatial analysis of COVID-19 mortality and commuting flows in England in 2020.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic forced governments to implement lockdown policies to curb the spread of the disease. These policies explicitly encouraged homeworking, hence reducing the number of commuters with the implicit assumption that restricting peoples' movement reduces risk of infection for travellers and other people in their areas of residence and work. Yet, the spatial interrelation of different areas has been rarely addressed both in the public discourse and in early accounts of the various consequences of COVID-19. METHODS: Our study proposes a spatial analysis of the association between commuting flows and COVID-19 mortality in England between March and June 2020, using a range of publicly available area-level data. To account for spatial correlation, we used a structural mobility gravity model to analyze commuting flows between Local Authority Districts. By accounting for these spatial dependencies, we temper concerns of bias and inefficiency affecting simple linear estimates. Additionally, we disentangle the direct and indirect (from other areas) influence of commuting on COVID-19 mortality. RESULTS: The results of our spatial regression models suggest that higher commuting flows-in general and particularly by public transport-are associated with higher COVID-19 mortality. Our results are consistent with a reduction in COVID-related mortality after the introduction of a national lockdown in March. The spatial-lag term is statistically significant, highlighting the importance of accounting for spatial dependencies. CONCLUSION: We suggest that considering spatial interactions through commuting or travel motivations may offer interesting perspectives on the trade-off between health and economic activity during lockdowns.